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Negligible future warming from: CO2 – CH4 – N2O

 

 

As at its current concentration atmospheric CO2 at 420 ppmv is already more than 85% saturated,  the Global warming potential of atmospheric CO2 is almost exhausted.

All attempts by Mankind to limit further CO2 emissions or other Greenhouse gasses will have no further significant controlling effect on Global temperature.

Any further actions by the Western minority of Man-kind to protect against a supposed Global Overheating Catastrophe by reducing or controlling Greenhouse Gas emissions are self-harming and pointless.

 

 

Introduction

The major and essential Greenhouse gas is Water in the atmosphere occurring both as Water Vapour and as Clouds.

The other minor Greenhouse Gasses in the atmosphere are:

A cogent case can be made that all future Man-made emissions of these minor Greenhouse gasses especially when derived from Western Nations are:

instead

These analyses, they show that:

Although studiously ignored by Climate Alarmist thinking, the Water in the atmosphere either as Water Vapour or as Clouds is the main Greenhouse Gas, accounting for roughly 85% – 95% of the total warming effect or about ~30°C of the estimated ~+33°C Greenhouse effect.  The Greenhouse effect of Water in the atmosphere varies according to latitude, local climate and local humidity roughly within that range.  Mankind has no influence on the amount or distribution of water in the atmosphere. 

The water-based Greenhouse effect of ~+30°C is essential to the continuance of all life on Earth.  The Water in the atmosphere maintains the habitability of the planet and thus supports all Life-on-Earth.

This note illustrates the context, proportionality and scale of the temperature effects of the minor greenhouse gasses emphasising their future irrelevance.

Note:  the values shown here are deliberately approximate, as indicated by the symbol “~”. The values here show minimal values for the temperature effect of CO2 and other Greenhouse gasses.  Actual values are more variable according to local climate conditions, humidity, longitude, etc.  Nonetheless, the values are at the right scale and in the right ball park.  

 

The low levels of Carbon Dioxide contribute the most of Greenhouse warming

The following diagram uses the US  EPA estimate that the whole CO2 based component of Global warming amounts to ~8.2% of the total Greenhouse effect:  33°C * 8.2%  =  +~2.71°C up to a maximum CO2 level of 1000 ppmv.  As the further warming effect of CO2 still diminishes logarithmically increases of the CO2 level have ever less important effects on Global temperature.  In this diagram those increments are ignored beyond 1000 ppmv.

In this diagram note that:

are gross misrepresentations of the role of atmospheric CO2.  

on the contrary the minor residue of CO2 in the atmosphere is the absolutely essential Gas of Life.

 

The long-term history of the atmospheric composition and temperature

The diagrams below summarise the evolution of the Earth’s atmosphere over the past 4.6 billion years and show global variations in temperature and CO2 concentration over the most recent the Phanerozoic eon, the last ~600 million years, the period over which the whole of advanced Life-on-Earth has emerged.

Over the most recent Phanerozoic eon Global temperatures have been substantially higher than at present, (+~ 15°C ).  Global temperatures are now low by comparison.

About 2.5 million years ago the Earth entered an Ice Age, with permanent ice sheets at both poles.  Long cold periods lasting ~100,000+ years are now interspersed by shorter interglacial periods of ~10,000+ years. This pattern is established by the mechanics of the Solar System and its Milankovitch cycles.  Our current Holocene interglacial period is the most recent warming interlude:  it has resulted in Mankind’s development from cave dwelling to computers over the last 10,000 years.

The more recent temperature pictures show a massive decline that started some 55 million years ago.  And the history of our current Holocene interglacial shows that any temperature recovery from the recent little ice age is marginal in comparison with more significant variations even in the recent past.

Over most of the 600 million year Phanerozoic eon Global temperatures have been substantially higher than at present, (+~15°C ).  Global temperatures are now low by comparison.

About 2.5 million years ago the Earth entered an Ice Age, with permanent ice sheets at both poles.  Long cold periods lasting ~100,000+ years are interspersed by shorter interglacial periods of ~10,000+ years. This pattern is established by the mechanics of the Solar System and its Milankovitch cycles.

The more recent temperature pictures show a massive decline that started some 55 million years ago.  And the history of our current Holocene interglacial shows that any temperature recovery from the little ice age is marginal in comparison with more significant variations even in the recent past.

Our current Holocene interglacial is the most recent of those warmer interglacial times.

The warmer Holocene epoch of the last ~10,000+ years has been the enabler of the development of Man-kind’s civilisations, from the stone age to computing.

Judging from past interglacials after ~10,000 years, our current Holocene period, should be drawing to its close, sometime this century, next century or this millennium.

The ending of the Holocene and the subsequent reversion of the World to real Ice Age conditions will result in a true catastrophe for the World and Humankind.

For the last 100 million years atmospheric CO2 levels have been reducing progressively.  At the start of our current the Holocene epoch only 20,000 years ago, the CO2 level had fallen to 180ppmv.  This was only 20% above the terminal level for all Life-on-Earth, (Photosynthesis fails below 150ppmv).

With industrialisation and the exploitation of Fossil fuels Man-kind has made especially rapid technical advances over the last 200 years.  This has resulted in huge advances in the well-being for the majority of the 8 billion people now sustained by planet Earth.

There is now a real risk that the inexorable Carbon sequestration processes progressing in the world’s oceans will lead to atmospheric CO2 levels falling below the terminal Photosynthetic level of 150ppmv during some future ~100,000 year Glaciation.

With the eventual failure of Photosynthesis from lack of atmospheric CO2, all Life-on-Earth will end in some future Glacial period.  There is even a chance that the happenstance of Man-kind’s current activities, adding to CO2 levels by burning fossil fuels may raise the threshold of atmospheric CO2 and thus delay the final steps of the CO2 sequestration process and even prolong the survival of all life on Earth.

 

The radiation physics of atmospheric CO2 by Professor William Happer

This presentation by Professor William Happer provides an explanation of the atmospheric radiation physics shows that the temperature effectiveness of CO2 diminishes logarithmically.  At the current 420pppmv the temperature effect of atmospheric CO2 is ~85% saturated.  Any possible future CO2 temperature effects are well below any of the Alarmist and official predictions that are asserted by the Climate Modelling of the IPCC, (UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change).

Professor Happer’s specialism is the radiation physics of energy transfer in the atmosphere. In the early 1990’s, whilst Director of Energy Research in the U.S. Department of Energy during the George Bush presidency, Professor Happer was responsible for setting up many of the American Climate Research establishments, which are now supporting the idea of Climate Alarm.

Professor Happer explains the atmospheric Radiation Physics involved in this presentation.

 

Paraphrasing Professor Happer

“The important point here is the red line on this chart.  It shows what would happen if the concentration of CO2 was doubled.  The gap between the black line and the red line shows the extent of the effect of doubling CO2.  So, you can see that doubling CO2 now makes virtually no difference.

On the basis of this miniscule difference, we are supposed to give up our liberties, give up the gasoline engines in our automobiles, give up all the benefits of Western Industrial society and submit to dictatorial Government controls”.

“The message I want you to understand is:

don’t let anyone convince you that is a good bargain:  it is in fact a terrible bargain.”

 

Alarmist reasoning for a massive temperature increase from Man-made CO2

Climate alarmists, assert via their models that the release of additional “Western” increments of Man-made CO2, greater than 420ppmv, (actually only capable of only causing very small temperature increases), will result in a massive positive temperature feedback from the additional water evaporated into the atmosphere.  Massive positive feedback processes like this are unknown in the earlier natural billion year past records.  Much higher concentrations of atmospheric CO2 have never caused runaway warming.   Such massive positive feedback events conflict with the Le Chatelier principal with determines that positive feedbacks are very rare and almost unheard of in nature.

 

 

Carbon Dioxide starvation

 

The temperature contributions of the Methane CH4 and Nitrous Oxide N2O

Oxygen, the by-product of Photosynthesis is ~20% of the atmosphere.  The inherent Oxidation chemistry of both Methane and Nitrous Oxide means that they are continuously purged from the atmosphere leaving only minor residues, measured in parts / billion in the atmosphere.  Even at those low concentrations Methane and Nitrous Oxide still make a limited but stable combined contribution to Global temperature of ~+0.53°C.  That temperature contribution is independent of the level of Carbon Dioxide.

Climate Alarmists believe that the continuing release of CH4 and N2O will contribute massively to Global overheating as they are very powerful heating agents.  These Alarmists are in error because they do not account for the inherent chemistry of these gasses in the Oxygen rich atmosphere where they react and dissipate so they are only capable of sustaining levels measured in parts / billion by volume.  At these low concentrations their heating effect is real but limited to ~0.53°C.

Water is by far the most significant Greenhouse gas

Adding in the temperature Greenhouse effect of Water as both Water vapour and Clouds and rescaling the earlier diagram shows the comparative insignificance of the minor Greenhouse gasses when set in the overall context of the full ~33°C Greenhouse effect.

The current temperature contributions of the Minor Greenhouse gasses:  Carbon Dioxide, Methane and Nitrous oxide are roughly as follows:

Rescaling the earlier diagram and adding in the major impact of atmospheric water, stresses the relative insignificance of future CO2 concentrations and the limited but stabilised future temperature effects of Methane and Nitrous Oxide:

Colder Oceans progressively re-absorb CO2 from the atmosphere

During glaciations, the cooler Oceans are capable of absorbing more CO2 from the atmosphere.  Oceanic reabsorption of CO2 has been ongoing at least for the last ~150+ million years, since the start of the Cretaceous period, when atmospheric CO2 levels were ~3000+ppmv. Oceanic marine life, especially plankton and molluscs, naturally sequester CO2 as Calcium Carbonate, to create their protective exoskeletons.  Those calcium carbonate deposits are eventually transmuted into limestone rocks, like the white cliffs of Dover, as well as marble and all the other forms of deposited limestone.

During some future ~100,000-year glaciation, this inexorable natural process reabsorbing CO2 will eventually result in the termination of all Life-on-Earth as CO2 is progressively sequestered in the Oceans to be deposited as limestones, Calcium Carbonate.

That natural re-absorption of CO2 will eventually result in the atmospheric level of CO2, falling below the ~150 ppmv plant survival level.

It was only ~20,000 years ago, at the start of our Holocene interglacial global CO2 level was about 180 ppmv:  this was very close to that terminal threshold, when Plant Photosynthesis could no longer operate and so plants could no longer survive.  Even at the 180ppmv level much of plant life was already severely stressed, especially at higher elevations.  It is even conceivable that the by burning Fossil Fuels and emitting some extra CO2 that Mankind could delay by millennia the CO2 levels falling below that fatal threshold of 150 ppmv.

 

Conclusions

 

Never forget     Sun Tsu’s first art of war:

“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”

That is exactly what is happening as Western governments pursue self-harming Green Energy policies to reduce or eliminate CO2 emissions and other Greenhouse gasses.

There is no better way to damage the economies of Western societies than by rendering their energy supplies unreliable and expensive.

So Green thinking can only be regarded as a very successful branch of the continuation of the “Cold War” intended to undermine the viability of the economies of the Western world.

Cui bono  Who Benefits ?

and

The late Professor David MacKay:

“the dependence on Weather-Dependent “Renewable Energy” to power a developed economy is an Appalling Delusion”. 

There’s so much delusion and I think it’s so dangerous for humanity that people allow themselves to have these delusions that they’re willing to not think carefully about the numbers, the realities, and the laws of physics and the realities of engineering… humanity really does need to pay attention to arithmetic, and the laws of physics.”

Arithmetic?  Laws of physics?  Engineering?  These are all lost on Western politicians, to our incalculable cost.

 

 

 

References

Richard Lindzen

What historians will definitely wonder about in future centuries is how deeply flawed logic, obscured by shrewd and unrelenting propaganda, actually enabled a coalition of powerful special interests to convince nearly everyone in the world that CO2 from human industry was a dangerous, planet-destroying toxin. It will be remembered as the greatest mass delusion in the history of the world – that CO2, essential to the life of plants, was considered for a time to be a deadly poison.

https://penguinempirereports.substack.com/p/whos-paying-for-lunch?utm_source=multiple-personal-recommendations-email&utm_medium=email&triedRedirect=true

https://penguinempirereports.substack.com/p/cheap-if-you-ignore-3trillion?r=2og74c

https://penguinempirereports.substack.com/p/cheap-if-you-ignore-3trillion?r=2og74c

This short paper sets out the long-term context for the Greenhouse effect and the importance of warmth to the flourishing of all life on planet Earth.

A Brief History of Climate, From Prehistory to The Imaginary Crisis of the 21st Century

Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03098.pdf

Climate the Movie

And a similar film made in 2007

 

CO2: The Miracle Molecules with Dr Will Happer and Greg Wrightstone